I am a part of the team which is responsible for management and hedging of commodities exposures. Some say corporates are good only in following advice from banks or brokerages. I do agree corporates do not have market insight of a bank. But here is a problem. It is not bank or broker or a hedge fund that has biggest risk that markets will go against them. These guys always have an option to do nothing and wait for a better trading opportunity where as we don't. We have to continue to purchase commodities, spend currencies for daily business. Such company is always exposed to changes to market price even if it decides not to hedge. In fact my company has probably one of the biggest short commodities portfolio in the world. Managing such risk effectively is a challenge. It is like being between a rock and a hard place. You get your behind kicked all the time be senior management, whether it was a missed opportunity to hedge or hedge that turned to be out of the money. Critics will say if you lost money on your hedge then you probably bought it cheaper on physical market. let's face it, nobody wants to loose money, full-stop.

So I do not have an option to do nothing as I am always in the position (short in this case). I think people like me have higher motivation to earn positive return on their portfolio then other players. In fact my intention is to bring hedging to a performance benchmark of proprietary trading.

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Too much talk

All focus on Europe these days. There's just too much talk, but it does not feel like officials will be able to talk us out of this. Looks like the markets are testing too which extent the credit markets can be stretched until long term bond investors come in. Yet the resilient equity markets in Germany and the US suggest market is not yet pricing in contagion.  But it is spreading through higher interest rates that will separate boys from men. Which country is prepared to withstand interest rates hit? Feels like only Germany will be able to...

Otherwise mixed feeling about economy. But I still have questions that remain unanswered. Why China is not raising interest rates as its peers? Is there something we do not know? Is QE in the US a failure or success? Economic data post announcement disappoints but sentiment continues to rise.

Since the news are coming out almost hourly it is impossible to run charts and to have a view as most likely I will be wrong. So sit and wait for the moment.
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