I am a part of the team which is responsible for management and hedging of commodities exposures. Some say corporates are good only in following advice from banks or brokerages. I do agree corporates do not have market insight of a bank. But here is a problem. It is not bank or broker or a hedge fund that has biggest risk that markets will go against them. These guys always have an option to do nothing and wait for a better trading opportunity where as we don't. We have to continue to purchase commodities, spend currencies for daily business. Such company is always exposed to changes to market price even if it decides not to hedge. In fact my company has probably one of the biggest short commodities portfolio in the world. Managing such risk effectively is a challenge. It is like being between a rock and a hard place. You get your behind kicked all the time be senior management, whether it was a missed opportunity to hedge or hedge that turned to be out of the money. Critics will say if you lost money on your hedge then you probably bought it cheaper on physical market. let's face it, nobody wants to loose money, full-stop.

So I do not have an option to do nothing as I am always in the position (short in this case). I think people like me have higher motivation to earn positive return on their portfolio then other players. In fact my intention is to bring hedging to a performance benchmark of proprietary trading.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Still catching up... It is all about interest rates markets

Today's post is rather useless as it mostly discusses old news, yet for the sake of catching up with the market developments it is worth mentioning.

It is all about interest rates these days and nothing else matters. Benchmark interest rates hikes in Asia and rising yields elsewhere are weighing on the markets. Obviously the underlying factors for yields rise should be taken into account. While Asia and Latin America performed, well, better then developed world, and interest rates increase is the proper policy response to inflation, growth of monetary base, etc, the rest of the world is simply experiencing higher interest rates through bond yields. There is nothing new in rising yields in peripheral Europe, but French yields are a concern, yet it is more likely due to relatively better growth.

(for some reason I tend not to like the US, sorry for this) The fact is that US yields are rising as well post QE2 announcement (10y chart is below):


And, according to FED there are not supposed to. Ok, I might admit that it is also a growth story... or another insolvent country story. put everything aside, there is a trend there and the way for it is up. It is also interesting to see that rising yields correspond to stronger dollar (correlation of 10Y with Dollar index is very high):


and ,watching the markets intraday, you can feel that it just knock down a chair under the "risk assets". While it persists, stronger yields will limit a rise in oil, metals and equities.

No charts or technicals today as I am still catching up with the markets.

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