the question is, has crude risen high enough to knock out the floor under base metals and equities. we'll see by the end of today.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Day of reckoning
is it just me or today will be the day of reckoning for global markets? everything does remind me about 2008.
the question is, has crude risen high enough to knock out the floor under base metals and equities. we'll see by the end of today.
the question is, has crude risen high enough to knock out the floor under base metals and equities. we'll see by the end of today.
Monday, February 28, 2011
one worrying chart
stopped on all fx trades (CAD and GBP)
one of the rationale behind long usd vs other currency pairs was that there were catalysts in the market that were going to lift USD off its long term support:
one of the rationale behind long usd vs other currency pairs was that there were catalysts in the market that were going to lift USD off its long term support:
No fx trend for the time being as this support line is worth watching. EUR, CAD, GBP, AUD are all about to finish February on the highs, some we might see follow through in March. dollar weakness is likely being attributed to interest rates differential as most of the central banks, with the exception of the US, either started raising rates already or started preparing the market for rate hikes. Still I doubt ECB or BOE will raise rates anytime soon given ongoing problems in Europe.
There are plenty of catalysts, unresolved questions going forward arguing for a trend change in USD. debt, revolutions, inflation, etc... I have to admit though that FED's stubbornness regarding "there is no inflation" theme is astonishing. Feels like FED is 6 month behind the curve... Will March be the month when inflation will finally filter through? price inflation is already there. the question is in my opinion, whether it will be stagflation like in the US, or out of control bubble like in China? sorry still have no faith in this "recovery"
and on the good note, here's the market that had been underloved by many... NYMEX natural gas
Spec net short position is standing at all time high (people are very short):
however front month is up 25 cents already since last friday low... the one who covers his short first - wins!
Friday, February 25, 2011
update on open trades
-moving short Brent @119 to 115, that daily candle has the biggest shadow I've ever seen, a long term top?
-moving short GBPUSD to breakeven at 1.6230 (didn't you get it? this economy is rubbish... and you still want to raise interest rates? oh please do and watch the consequences.
-leaving long USDCAD as is: entry 0.9880 s/l 0.9780, open target - there was little follow through on lower oil prices - getting nervous there
Egypt stock exchange is closed, Italians kept the exchange closed during bad news, now LSE... keep people happy at all costs.
-moving short GBPUSD to breakeven at 1.6230 (didn't you get it? this economy is rubbish... and you still want to raise interest rates? oh please do and watch the consequences.
-leaving long USDCAD as is: entry 0.9880 s/l 0.9780, open target - there was little follow through on lower oil prices - getting nervous there
Egypt stock exchange is closed, Italians kept the exchange closed during bad news, now LSE... keep people happy at all costs.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
timing is everything
stopped on short EURUSD trade at 13760 (didn't I say that I didn't like the technicals on this one... hmm), still sticking to short GBPUSD, but it looks shaky as it feels like USD is loosing safe heaven ground. so what's next safe heaven currency (apart of PM). Euro? will never buy it. Periphery is revolting again.
Middle East is likely going through boom bust scenario when it comes to oil. Short Brent at 119, s/l at 122, target sub 100. Libya exports 70% of its oil to Ireland, Italy and Austria (weak periphery). And it is very unlikely that rumours of unrest in Saudi Arabia will have effect on supply: 1. Saudi King is seen as reformer (already spent $34 billion on social programs). 2. he will likely to find dialogue rather then confrontation. 3. he is too important for the US for them to live this issue alone, so they will pressure him to give away.
working through boom bust theory, long USDCAD at 0.9880 s/l @ 0.9780, open target
too late to short base metals and stock indices...
good luck all....
Middle East is likely going through boom bust scenario when it comes to oil. Short Brent at 119, s/l at 122, target sub 100. Libya exports 70% of its oil to Ireland, Italy and Austria (weak periphery). And it is very unlikely that rumours of unrest in Saudi Arabia will have effect on supply: 1. Saudi King is seen as reformer (already spent $34 billion on social programs). 2. he will likely to find dialogue rather then confrontation. 3. he is too important for the US for them to live this issue alone, so they will pressure him to give away.
working through boom bust theory, long USDCAD at 0.9880 s/l @ 0.9780, open target
too late to short base metals and stock indices...
good luck all....
Friday, February 18, 2011
Selling GBP and EUR...
put your money where your mouth is...
this is just my view and not necessarily view of my company. Although I do not trade FX, but follow it closely, the developments over the last weeks in Europe, such as increasing talk of interest rates hikes, continuing political uncertainty on how the future would look like should expose the dark side of the "recovery". Simply betting that any further IR hike speculations for the economies that just plugged the wholes in their sinking ships and not solved them (keyword debt) would scare markets going further and $ will benefit from this (despite I don't like Ben's policies either). Out of two evil you choose the smallest one. Technically I like short GBP more then Euro, but European periphery will be devastated by IR shock...
I will be working on hypothetical portfolio, rationale and charts, but for the time being:
short EURUSD @ 1.3630 stop 1.3760 target under 1.30
short GBPUSD @ 1.6230 stop 1.6330 target under 1.58
time to be contrarian... looking for a good entry in the equity indices and commodities....
this is just my view and not necessarily view of my company. Although I do not trade FX, but follow it closely, the developments over the last weeks in Europe, such as increasing talk of interest rates hikes, continuing political uncertainty on how the future would look like should expose the dark side of the "recovery". Simply betting that any further IR hike speculations for the economies that just plugged the wholes in their sinking ships and not solved them (keyword debt) would scare markets going further and $ will benefit from this (despite I don't like Ben's policies either). Out of two evil you choose the smallest one. Technically I like short GBP more then Euro, but European periphery will be devastated by IR shock...
I will be working on hypothetical portfolio, rationale and charts, but for the time being:
short EURUSD @ 1.3630 stop 1.3760 target under 1.30
short GBPUSD @ 1.6230 stop 1.6330 target under 1.58
time to be contrarian... looking for a good entry in the equity indices and commodities....
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
is the UK falling into stgfltn
Over a month, correction, over three months, I didn't want to write anything I did not believe in.
the above line was in drafts of this blog waiting to be published since end of November. If I kept everything I wrote which then was deleted it would make for a good sized book.
I have been reading a lot other people's thoughts though and it appears to be I belong to a small group of people called "permabears". And while we continue talking how bearish we are, making money if you were a permabear would have been difficult in this environment. Yet there were ideas during last year that that fit both bear and bull camps, e.g. rising bond yields - some said it was a sign of economic recovery, others meant inflation and in case of some countries increased risk of default or outright punishment for irresponsible spending. A reminder for myself - know your "enemy".
I think it would make sense to brand the ideas that fits all camps as "one size fits all"...
since I am just warming up for the year, I will talk about some very country specific observations rather then macro view..
The striking evidence of things getting out of control is not in Egypt or other Middle East countries, but rather in the UK. Is it obvious, that negative growth with high inflation means "...." - the word we have not heard for a while. well, not so negative growth and not so high inflation, but it feels like the trend is there. watch employment numbers today...
Once this "word we do not pronounce" gets into mainstream media, like morning newspaper, expect things to uncover quickly... will George Soros be on the short pound trade again?
Historically, interest rate differential between the UK and other countries had been very high. Sentiment is this is to stay. sorry, but I am not buying it.
Patience is a virtue
the above line was in drafts of this blog waiting to be published since end of November. If I kept everything I wrote which then was deleted it would make for a good sized book.
I have been reading a lot other people's thoughts though and it appears to be I belong to a small group of people called "permabears". And while we continue talking how bearish we are, making money if you were a permabear would have been difficult in this environment. Yet there were ideas during last year that that fit both bear and bull camps, e.g. rising bond yields - some said it was a sign of economic recovery, others meant inflation and in case of some countries increased risk of default or outright punishment for irresponsible spending. A reminder for myself - know your "enemy".
I think it would make sense to brand the ideas that fits all camps as "one size fits all"...
since I am just warming up for the year, I will talk about some very country specific observations rather then macro view..
The striking evidence of things getting out of control is not in Egypt or other Middle East countries, but rather in the UK. Is it obvious, that negative growth with high inflation means "...." - the word we have not heard for a while. well, not so negative growth and not so high inflation, but it feels like the trend is there. watch employment numbers today...
Once this "word we do not pronounce" gets into mainstream media, like morning newspaper, expect things to uncover quickly... will George Soros be on the short pound trade again?
Historically, interest rate differential between the UK and other countries had been very high. Sentiment is this is to stay. sorry, but I am not buying it.
Patience is a virtue
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